A recent Cascade PBS/Elway poll has highlighted a notable decline in the optimism of Washington state voters following the inauguration of Donald Trump’s second term as president. The survey, conducted between December 26 and December 30, 2024, reveals a mix of concerns, including economic uncertainty, housing costs, and shifting party identification trends.
Key Findings
The poll found that voter sentiment about the country’s direction has shifted, with 49% of respondents believing the nation will improve in the coming year, compared to 45% who predict a decline. However, optimism about Washington state’s future is at its second-lowest level since 1992, with only 36% expecting improvements.
Despite partisan differences, more than half of respondents (51%) supported Washington state complying with Trump’s controversial plans for deporting millions of undocumented individuals. However, 52% of voters anticipated that Trump’s policies would negatively affect their lives, either directly or indirectly.
Decline in Party Identification
The number of registered independents has surged to 36%, surpassing Democrats (35%) and Republicans (20%). Pollster Stuart Elway suggests this trend reflects voter fatigue with partisan conflict. Interestingly, while Democrats gained control of the state government, their party identification fell to its lowest point since 2017. Similarly, Republican affiliation dropped five percentage points and is just two points above its all-time low.
Economic Concerns Dominate
Economic issues, particularly housing costs, remain a top priority for Washington voters. As the state legislative session begins in Olympia, lawmakers face pressure to address these concerns while managing budget deficits.
A majority (66%) of respondents prefer cutting programs to balance the budget, while only 25% support raising taxes. If tax hikes are considered, 57% favor targeting wealthy individuals rather than the general public. Over 60% of voters support revising the state’s tax structure, reflecting a broader desire for equitable taxation.
Poll Methodology
The poll surveyed 403 registered voters in Washington state using a mix of live landline (15%), live cell phone calls (20%), and online participation (65%). The margin of error is ±5% at a 95% confidence level.